Oregonians for Relationship Equality, Straight Up

If promoting civil equality for gay couples is simply part of a (hidden?) "gay agenda," it would stand to reason that since heterosexuals have nothing to gain from the agenda, few of them would bother to rally for a cause that doesn't affect them, right?

Of course, that's not the case--lots of people who are straight nonetheless take up the banner for full relational equality, both in this country and specifically in Oregon. Carla and I are both "breeders," but we've always supported same-sex marriage, and at a bare minimum equal partnership rights. There are a lot of us, more than you may think--all believing that if some of us are still held back, then the fight for liberty is not over. Fifty Oregonians, from all parts of the state, have joined to help Basic Rights Oregon educate folks on why relational equality matters to all of us, and to form a bulwark against any referendum repeal of civil unions:

We know that families come in all varieties and it is our strong belief that ALL Oregon families deserve to have the rights, responsibilities and protections necessary to keep each other safe in times of crisis.

The 50 Voices For Equality campaign is meant to demonstrate the broad cross-section of straight Oregonians who support relationship equality for Oregon's committed same-sex couples and their families. These 50 Oregonians also believe that discrimination of any kind is wrong and ought to be against the law.

From the faith and business communities, to farmers and grandparents--freedom from discrimination for gay and lesbian Oregonians is a belief shared by a large majority of Oregonians.

They've also put together a pretty cool video you can watch here, to get you to meet some of those 50 voices and hear their stories.

Gordon Takes Credit for Carrying Their Water

Listen to what people were saying in 2002 about Gordon Smith's involvement in the Klamath water fiasco:

Some say you can't fight the federal government...they should meet Gordon Smith.

Water's our problem--and bureaucrats.

He took it straight to Bush.

He wouldn't take no for an answer.

That's Gordon. He stood up for us.

Gordon Smith carried our water.

Wow, for someone who wants to avoid scrutiny on this re-bubbling topic, those statements have to be a little inconvenient right now, don't they? The way these people tell it, when Gordon Smith found out that "bureaucrats" (read: federal biologists) wanted to give Klamath River water to fish instead of farmers, he not only got involved, he went right to the head of scientific inquiry in the US--President Bush! And somehow, though Republicans have been famous for taking whatever answer the President gives them, this time Smith wouldn't budge! He carried their water.

Could these people be any more obvious with what they're saying? Whatever it was that got the decision turned around in Washington to overrule the fish and slake the land's thirst instead, the people saying these things believe that Gordon Smith was instrumental in getting it done. Who could have put them up to say such things?

How about Gordon Smith?

Forgive the video quality, but the audio for this 2002 Smith re-election ad is crystal clear...right down to the sound of the irrigation sprinkler at the very end. Out of 30 precious seconds to the admen, almost five of them have that sound, and it's no mistake. There are only two things Gordon Smith really wanted his Klamath constituency to retain from that viewing experience: the name Gordon Smith, and chsh-chsh-chsh-chsh-chsh. It's like he's bragging to the farmers--"I got your water turned on, don't forget me this fall." Chsh chsh chsh.

Novick 6th-highest 2Q Earner on ActBlue

Not to construe it to mean that Steve Novick is a national fundraising monster, given the fact that (for instance) Barack Obama took in about $15 million in online donations and almost none of it came through ActBlue--but here are the stats for top ten dollar recipients in Q2 at that quickly-growing site:

Top candidates by $ raised (Q2)

amount | candidate
----------+------------------
883,656 | John Edwards
134,904 | John Kerry
128,215 | Jared Polis
107,483 | Joseph Sestak Jr
103,264 | Tim Johnson
101,689 | Steve Novick
97,000 | Chellie Pingree
77,677 | Niki Tsongas
74,254 | Mark Leno
70,377 | Jamie Eldridge

In addition, with 501 donors he falls just out of the top ten in that category, given that #10 is BlogPac (our new favorite friends, and we'll tell you why soon) with 548.

If you made a contribution to Steve's campaign in order to boost his 2Q showing, well done. And thank you! We'll be talking to you in 3 months... :)

Novick Threatens 200K for Quarter, and Threatens it Good

Well, they sure do count fast over at Novick Central:

Today Steve Novick for U.S. Senate announced that the campaign had raised over $190,000 in the second quarter and was adding two paid staff, Jake Weigler as campaign manager and Aviva Groner as its finance coordinator.

“It is great that so many people share our vision of how to help Gordon Smith to a well-deserved retirement,” said Novick. “The fact that over 600 of them have already contributed to our campaign is a clear signal that we are well on our way.”

Ah yes, the other news is the apparatus. Weigler did a fine job in his prior role as Deputy Communcations Director for GuvTed as the parade of bills made their way from the dome to Mahonia, and Groner is a veteran of successful campaigns.

Regardless of whether he plans to run an insurgency-style campaign or not, Novick is surrounding himself with known players in the Oregon Democratic sphere. As he attempts to transition from "friends and family money" to stranger money, the comfort level with those professionals--particularly Groner--will be important. According to Novick's release, Cliff Trow, former Corvallis State Senator and leader of the Senate Democrats from 1996 to 1999 said, “Steve's campaign is clearly gathering momentum around the state. Those of us who worked with Steve when he was chief of staff to the Democrats in the State Senate know how good he is at building a team and generating energy and excitement. That's what he did for us in 1997 and '98, and that's what he's doing now.”

There's a long way to go, and now that the 1st tier group has abdicated the race there appears to be no shortage of folks considering a run. Among speculated newcomers are Jeff Merkley and Paul Evans, adding to the four or five other potential candidates already said to be mulling and ruminating. Who actually enters will have an impact on how Steve positions himself and what kind of campaign he'll run.

Of anyone mentioned, Merkley changes the game the most by placing a traditional Democrat with the traditional resume' and strong Portland ties into the fray. As someone said elsewhere, the debates could approach Lincoln-Douglas stature. But it would also force Novick into the insurgent's role, the gadfly's gadfly. And that's not necessarily Novick's sweet spot. Steve's angle is that he arrests you with his story and the confidence in his vision and principles.

Presenting as a new kind of candidate is more difficult with Merkley in the race, because it looks like a reaction to a perceived fault--that Novick has no electoral experience and Jeff is filthy with it--and more importantly Merkely can spin it as a positive where Gordon Smith cannot. In a general against Smith Novick can use Smith's experience against him; in a primary against Merkley the job is much tougher and exposes the only serious hole in his own profile.

All that's down the road, though. Right now Steve has to feel pretty good about where he sits, still the only candidate every news story mentions because he's the only one in. He has the foundation of a solid team, has put together good base funding in 10 weeks this far out (including an impressive $100,000 in netroots contributions), and is watching Gordon Smith's pedestal shake ever so imperceptibly the last couple of weeks. It's going to be a wild year and a half, people.

Summer of Steve Day 6--Utter Begging Edition

Well here we are at June 30th, the last day of the second quarter for fundraising if you're a federal candidate. And when those reports come out in the middle of next month, donors and inner-Beltway politicos will look the numbers over and decide whether it's worth considering that candidate as "serious." We've said all along that Steve may have to run against the DSCC's chosen candidate, so we already know that it may be a fight waged at the ultimate retail level if that's the case. But it's certainly going to be easier if Steve IS the chosen candidate of the party elites, and so it's vitally important that he show the ability to raise money.

And that's where you come in. Not only amounts but number of donors are important. So don't be embarrassed about your $5 or $10 or $20. It's waaaay early in the cycle, and there's time to do more later. But now is the time to put your chit down and tell the opinion makers that you want to see someone like Steve given the chance to show Oregonians what he's capable of. Just through gifts over ActBlue, nearly 500 contributors have put over $100,000 into the kitty. We're proud to be the top non-Novick fundraising page for him, even if it is just $330. Can you help bring us to $500 by midnight? We've had a couple of $50 and $100 donors who have been very generous, but a dozen of you at $20 would do the trick as well.

Can you help? Go to our page and drop down whatever you can for now. We all say we WANT fresh blood and a new kind of politician in Congress, but it doesn't just happen. You have to help make it so. We're doing our part. Are you?

Golden More Likely To Run--Now That He's Out of Work

From the Ashland Tidings, which has to be enjoying the attention, this web item about radio host Jeff Golden's calendar suddenly being totally freed up:

Ron Kramer, executive director of JPR, said after the Daily Tidings first reported that Golden is considering a run for the U.S. Senate, the station and Golden “reached a mutual agreement that it was not feasible for him to continue” hosting “The Jefferson Exchange.”

Kramer said he was “entirely unaware” that Golden, a former Jackson County commissioner, had political aspirations until Tuesday, the day before the Tidings ran its front page story.

Does this sound entirely mutual? I think somebody panicked. But it's true; the smart move is definitely to disassociate with any free media voice you have while acting as a candidate.

Shouldn't someone tell that to ABC in reference to Fred Thompson, who blogs on happily as late as yesterday? Golden was just thinking out loud, for all we know, and may never have decided to run if not for being essentially fired. Thompson has an exploratory committee, and yet he's still an ABC go-to guy. I love our media!

We'll try to get a hold of Jeff and see if this has caused his plans to coalesce. Some choose runs, and some have runs thrust upon them...

Summer of Steve! Day 4--Enviro Warrior Edition

[putting the money shot at the top--give to Steve Novick's campaign today, to show the Democratic establishment that Oregonians believe in a new, people-oriented direction for the Senate...remember, if you file taxes in Oregon you can get a $50 credit per person for your contributions in each year. It's like the first $50 is free!]

We're on Day 4 of our 6-day drive to the finish of 2Q fundraising, Steve's first quarter as a federal candidate. Here's what he has to say about why it's so important for you to give this week if you're thinking of giving:

We have forty-eight hours to prove our strength. Forty-eight hours to show that this campaign is not a long shot, but a juggernaut.

Forty-eight hours to show that we are the campaign to dislodge Gordon Smith ... who this week struck another blow against working Oregonians with his vote against the Employee Free Choice Act.

As I mentioned the other day, Saturday, June 30 is the end of our first FEC reporting period. We will be judged by how much money we have raised as of that date. We've raised a mess of money already, from over 500 of you. But we can be, we must be, even more impressive.

Some of you have already given all that you can afford, and for that, I thank you profusely. But if you think you could help a little more, or can find someone else who would - now is the time. Go to http://www.novickforsenate.com/... and start hitting buttons.

Thank you so much for everything you have done and will do. It really does matter...

Amen. And to continue our pattern of comparing and contrasting Steve with el Gordo on the issues, look no further than our story this morning on the latter's active participation in putting politics before science. There's no official comment from Steve at this time on those revelations, but his record on the environment speaks for itself:

After stops in law firms in New York and San Francisco, Steve joined the Environment Division (then known as the "Land and Natural Resources Division") of the United States Justice Department in 1987. He brought successful lawsuits against polluters for violations of the Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act. He also served as lead counsel in the notorious Love Canal case. On that case in 1995, Steve and his team negotiated a settlement in which Occidental Chemical repaid the taxpayers $129 million in cleanup costs and interest. Announcing the settlement, Attorney General Janet Reno said: "Today we celebrate a transformation of an environmental disaster called Love Canal into a success story .... It [the settlement] stands for the principle that when people make a mess, they should pay to clean it up."

If the environment is your big issue, this race is no contest. Vote Hook!

BREAKING: Minnis Announces Retirement

The word from Salem is that moments ago, former House Speaker Karen Minnis announced her retirement from the floor, saying this will be her last session. It was expected, rumored, conventional wisdom--but now it's official: it's an open race in HD49! If former Majority Leader Wayne Scott also bows out, the last vestiges of the awful Minnis/Scott cabal that nearly trashed our state will be gone and (hopefully) politically buried.

So who's up for another run? Rob Brading, call on line 1...

Another Challenger for Gordo?

Chris Rizo at the Ashland Daily Tidings has the scoop:

Jefferson Public Radio talk-show host Jeff Golden of Ashland is considering a run for U.S. Senate.

While insiders said he is interested in the Democratic contest, Golden downplayed the speculation Monday, saying "it's too early" and "no firm decision has been made" on whether he will run.

A member of Golden's inner circle, who insisted on anonymity, said Golden's campaign announcement would unlikely come before September, if at all.

Paulie Brading, chair of the Jackson County Democratic Central Committee, said Monday that she has heard of Golden's political aspirations "from a variety of people," including Golden.

The Democratic National Senatorial Committee, she said, has done extensive polling in the state in hopes of finding a candidate to unseat Sen. Gordon Smith of Oregon, the GOP's only West Coast senator.

Golden, 57, an author and host of JPR's weekday radio show "The Jefferson Exchange," was a Jackson County commissioner from 1987 through 1990.

He was the target of an unsuccessful recall attempt spearheaded by logging interests in 1989, and was married to former longtime Ashland Mayor Cathy Shaw, now an A-list Democratic strategist in Southern Oregon.

Golden left the county executive board in 1990 to run for state Senate, narrowly losing to fourth-term Republican incumbent Lenn Hannon of Ashland.

Soon after, he took a job as chief of staff for then-state Senate President Bill Bradbury, D-Bandon. Bradbury is now secretary of state, Oregon's chief elections officer.

The more the merrier! I know little to nothing about Golden, but every new voice talking about why Gordo needs to be replaced is fine with us.

If you have stories/news about Golden and/or his potential run, share it with us in comments...

Update, 6/28 3pm--
Chris has more today on Golden, including an assessment of his chances by none other than Alan Bates--who appears to have company in the "Dem candidate from Southern Oregon" sweepstakes, and doesn't seem to like it much.

Summer of Steve--On Employee Free Choice, The Difference is Clear

[putting the money shot at the top--give to Steve Novick's campaign today, to show the Democratic establishment that Oregonians believe in a new, people-oriented direction for the Senate...remember, if you file taxes in Oregon you can get a $50 credit per person for your contributions in each year. It's like the first $50 is free!]


It's Day Two of Summer of Steve Week! The last week of a federal fundraising quarter is always a frenzy for candidates; you're trying to raise as much money as humanly possible before the filing period deadline in order to impress other potential backers that you're not just a candidate--you're a movement! Steve's definitely got a movement going on, and we're part of it. We believe most Oregonians are sick to death of politicians who arrive in DC and immediately don their Protective Bubble of Political Caution(tm), and are hungry for a Democrat in particular who elucidates his or her positions without apology, actually proud instead of seemingly guilty to be holding them.

Speaking of positions Steve is proud of, there's an excellent example in the news today--the Employee Free Choice Act. The essential goal of the legislation is to greatly simplify the process by which willing employees may form a union and assert their rights to collective bargaining. In addition, it places strong penalties on companies who seek to deny or unduly pressure employees not to join. Basically, once a majority of affected employees sign a card authorizing their participation, they're all set.

Why is this important? In an exclusive comment sent to LO after the bill failed a cloture vote this morning in the Senate, Steve himself explains:

It's no accident that we had a fairer economy, with a much smaller gap between the rich and the rest of us, in the 1950's and '60's: More workers were represented by unions, which negotiated a fairer share of the pie for workers. But in the past thirty years, unionization has declined and - no coincidence - inequality has increased. The richest 1% of Americans used to get 10% of total national income; now they get 20%.

One major explanation for declining union density is that employers have taken advantage of the fact that if you illegally fire someone for attempting to organize, all you get is a slap on the wrist - so they fire and threaten people. And they take advantage of a cumbersome election process that increases their ability to threaten workers. EFCA would level the playing field, imposing real penalties on employers who break the law. Based on my experience enforcing environmental laws, I know that enforcement and penalties matter. EFCA would also simply the process of choosing a union. It's simple: A stronger labor movement means a stronger, fairer America.

There you have it. In a world where Steve Novick represents us in the Senate, he'd be a solid vote for Oregon's workers, their right to organize and to receive fair treatment in the labor marketplace. How about the guy sitting in DC now? From The Hill last Wednesday:

Smith opposes the Employee Free Choice Act, which would establish a federal right for a card check unionization process. Smith told The Hill, "It's a payback to labor for their [Democrats] support. It's not something supported by the American people."

I'd call bullshit on that last statement especially, and so would Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio. See for yourself:

For the record, every Democratic candidate for President except Mike Gravel backed the bill, with Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Obama, and Kucinich all co-sponsoring it. Smith (and Walden) were the only members of the Oregon delegation to vote against it.

On issues like standing up for the people who awake each day and trudge off to work to put food on their families(!), there's just no comparison between Gordo and Steve Novick. Can you help put a shine on Steve's 2nd Quarter fundraising statement, by giving what you can to his campaign? Anything helps, honestly--just please do it by Friday so it counts in this quarter. Some people still don't believe Steve can overcome the obstacles and win. His whole life proves that wrong; now's your chance to offer a little proof of your own.

Smith Takes Another Poll Hit--Time for More Anti-War Posturing

These days Gordon Smith resembles nothing so much as a crab in a slowly warming pot--clearly getting uncomfortable, but with no good ideas on how to get himself out of the situation. And today's news brings word that the water temperature is rising.

First, a splash of background. As you may have seen via BlueO yesterday, over the weekend Smith enlisted the help of columnist George Will to re-burnish his moderate bona fides, with another attempt to make it seem like Smith is against the war. Will updated Smith's desperate meme on ABC's Sunday talk by declaring him the vanguard leader of disaffected Republicans:

George Stephanopoulus: Senator Smith told you that he believes he has, what?, about a dozen Republicans who will then join him in calling for a timetable for withdrawal?

George Will:
Well, that's what he said. That they will be where he is. And that is where he is.

The Republicans are scheduled, frankly, the way they talk, to panic in September. As in a way, they ought to. They're looking at another election on Iraq, and they'll be picking up the Republican Party in pieces with tweezers.

Your lips to God's ears, George--be sure to tell him this part, from your column:

“Smith has endorsed John McCain's presidential campaign. But the core of McCain's campaign is the puzzling doctrine that if we do not win in Iraq ‘they will follow us home.’ The global threat of terrorism cannot be defeated in Iraq, so, will terrorists not ‘follow us home’ only if U.S. forces continue to engage them in Iraq — where Gen. David Petraeus says there can be no military solution to that nation's afflictions? If so, that implies a need for endless engagement in Iraq, which is not a politically possible option.”

So Will is puzzled, too--and here he doesn't even mention the fact that Smith's most recent vote to fully fund the war was right in line with McCain doctrine. The folks at DPO didn't miss it, though:

“I remember the last time Gordon Smith pulled this stunt,” DPO Executive Director Trent Lutz said. “Last December, after telling as many reporters as he could find that he opposed the war, Senator Smith retreated to the senate chamber and continued voting for the conflict. By consistently voting for the war while telling the public he opposes it, he has lost all credibility with Oregonians. Who is going to believe him now?”

Good question--and the answer appears to be "not as many as before."

This month's Survey USA Senate tracking poll data is out, and the news continues to worsen for Oregon's junior Senator. Last month we did an extensive analysis of the numbers, showing you that Smith had fallen under 50% approval for the first time in a while at 48%, just shy of his 2-year low. However, the gap between approve and disapprove remained steady, at plus-9 or plus-10 for several months in a row.

For May the effect reversed itself--this time the approval number held fairly steady at 47%, but disapprovals jumped six points in a month (from 39% in May) to slash the gap to just two points, at 47-45. When you consider that he was at a healthy plus-28 just six months ago (58/30 in January), that is a tremendous overall drop. Also note that the net approval since January is -11, but the disapproval is +15, meaning that some folks who previously hadn't made up their minds are beginning to reach some conclusions--and they are not good for Gordo. (The "not sure" category has fluctuated back and forth a number of times, so the shift away from that choice may not be permanent).

We told you last time that much of the drop for Smith came from Republicans and non-affiliated voters. This time the GOP has taken Gordo back into the fold a bit, jumping their approval from 55% to 60%--but the news is worse for Smith among Democrats and NAVs. For surveyed Dems, opinions did a symmetrical flip: approval was down five points to 42; disapproval up five to 50, with a net approval loss of 10 points for the Senator. This shift has to be enormously soothing to the DPO and potential Democratic candidates, because in January Smith's approval stood at a whopping 62% among Dems. The 20-point cratering suggests that if they were initially fooled by Smith's pandering on the war, they've gotten over it.

Results among independents show a continued pattern of fluctuation from month to month...and it's another down month for Smith. His approvals within this group are essentially the same (46% down from 47%), but the disapprovals are up to 46% as well, six points more than last month and taken almost entirely from last month's "not sure" pile. Given the general national concordance between Dems and NAV's on the subject of the war, it may be no surprise that both groups saw a surge of decisiveness that trended towards the negative when evaluating Smith.

The other apparent driver for these numbers is the drop among people from places outside the Portland Metro area. As with Dems and NAVs, the recent movement is not so much a fall in approval as a spike in disapproval, fed by hardening opinions. Non-Portlanders went from 40% disapproval last month to 47%, an unusually large surge. Respondents beyond Portland have cut 11 points from his approvals just since March, added 14 points to his disapprovals--and have turned a plus-24 net approval into June's negative-1.

This may be the most troubling bleed of all for Gordo; as we said last time, if he can't figure out a way to motivate voters who aren't from the Big Three counties (Multno, WashCo, ClackaCo) he is severely cooked. And what this iteration of the SUSA survey set shows us is that his Extreme Congressional Makeover has not ended up helping his numbers long-term...and if these latest stats in the month after his vote to fully fund the war until September are any indication, the persistence with which Smith is trying to claim anti-war ground while voting the opposite way might just be starting to annoy some people. The DPO sees the hypocrisy pretty clearly:

“Gordon Smith has voted more than 20 times to authorize and fund the Iraq War and launched two media campaigns to convince Oregonians he opposes it. It does not matter how many reporters he talks to nor how slick his quotes are, he can’t hide his voting record in support of the Iraq War.”

Lose Cruise: Unpopular Sen Raises $ For Our Vulnerable One

Thank goodness that while Gordo works very hard to burnish his moderate image among Oregonians, ultimately he can't escape the fact that he's a member of the Bush-enabling crew who have put us in this handbasket the last six years. So while he's personally richer than 90 of his colleagues, there's no sense in putting that money into his re-election race if someone else will do it for him--and apparently it doesn't really matter who that someone is. From the increasingly on-the-ball DPO:

Voting to continue funding the Iraq War last month was not enough of a slap in the face to Oregonians for U.S. Senator Gordon Smith (R-OR).

Now he’s bringing in a fellow Bush loyalist and ardent Iraq War supporter to bolster his campaign coffers.

United States Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will raise campaign funds for Smith on a cruise tomorrow evening on the Willamette River.

“Rather than using their seats of power to resolve Iraq and end this war, senators Smith and McConnell continue to support President Bush and continue to fund the Iraq War,” DPO Chair Meredith Wood Smith said. “Before they board that boat on Saturday, Smith and McConnell should apologize for continuing to fund this war and pledge to stop funding this conflict.”

McConnell’s blind support for President Bush and the Iraq War mirror Smith’s record.

Both Smith and McConnell vote with President Bush at least 90 percent of the time, according to Congressional Quarterly.

And McConnell – unlike Smith - is honest about it.

While Smith publicly claims to oppose the war, but then votes for it, McConnell votes for the war and is open about his unrelenting commitment to staying in Iraq. [emph mine]

If you aren't a total politics junkie like we are, you might not know that McConnell is starting to struggle in his home state of Kentucky. Oregon's own John Singer at national blog MyDD has the scoop:

...McConnell is in much worse of a position than many might imagine a Republican from a state seemingly trending towards the GOP might be. To get an idea of this, just take a look at the skewed polling McConnell commissioned to make people believe he is in a stronger position than he is actually in. Safe incumbents just don't do this type of thing. What's more, not only does McConnell have troubles broadly within the Kentucky electorate, he also potentially faces a primary challenge, indicating a possibly underwhelming level of support from within his own party.

So regardless of whether Kentucky Democrats settle on Stumbo -- or businessman Charlie Owen, former congressional candidate Andrew Horne (both of whom Gerth mentions in his article) or someone else -- the Democrats have a real shot at defeating Mitch McConnell this cycle. And at the least, there is a clear opportunity for giving McConnell a good enough scare that he has to curtail his obstructionism and stay at home in his state rather than travel and raise money for other candidates.

Well, apparently he's not TOO scared just yet; the Willamette stands to get a little sludgier this weekend. But the mere fact that he's coming means that a) the NRSC likely thinks he needs to; and b) look who Gordo is turning to, in order to fill his campaign chest. If Bush came to raise money for him, people would understandably be turned off. Mitch McConnell is THE paramount defender of the President's policies for his Senate caucus, and is essentially the #3 man in the party. Isn't having one of the President's prime proxies come to town almost as bad as the real deal?