Thursday, October 12, 2006

New Poll: Kulo Crushing Saxton by 18!!!

Well, of course it's only The O's internet straw poll, which at this writing has the goobernor up 59-41. And no, I don't trust it as a barometer of the election, since it's not an independently administered poll with a representative sample of the electorate.

But then, neither is the Moore Information poll {pdf} conducted for Saxton, or the Riley poll {pdf again}, which eliminates from responding all residents newer to Oregon than 2004 (or 2002 if they didn't vote in May's dismally participated primaries), radically understates unaffiliated voters, and suggests that 35% of the electorate will be 65 or older (as opposed to the demographic reality of 13%*).

Sorry to draw you in under the false pretenses of the headline--no, we don't think Ted is up by 18 points--but I wanted to illustrate the point: garbage in, garbage out. And frankly, the polls being used by the traditional media are in that range. Tim Hibbitts last had Kulo up by five as did Rassmussen, the latter with Ted at a stable 47%, and minor candidates sure to suck votes off Saxton not included. I happen to think Hibbitts' likely voter model is also a little too strict, but at least he does reputable polling I can respect.

The O's straw poll also allows you to leave comments about why you're voting one way or the other. Saxton's support base appears to consist largely of people who think like this:
"I believe he is the only candidate that will do something to try to stop the illegal invasion of our state."
Ron Saxton: fighting them at the border, so we don't have to fight them here!

Update, 9pm--
Obviously you're going to find seniors at a senior center, which is where I was listening to Nancy Pelosi and the DeBlumenWuley. These were organized seniors, many from the Alliance for Retired Persons, and I happened to find myself standing next to Verna Porter, President of the Oregon Alliance for Retired Americans. When you have a question, ask an expert, so I said, "Any idea what the percent of voters in 04 in Oregon were 65 or older?" To the best of their estimation, they came up with about 20%. Which is about 50% more than their representation in the population, which sounds right. And Riley polled 35% seniors. I can't accept that there's not significant sample bias in a poll like that.

*Yes, the elderly register and vote in higher proportions than their numbers would suggest, but not three times as much.